摘要: |
为客观评价叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态安全警情,基于PSR-EEES模型构建适合研究区的指标评价体系,运用综合指数法测度1990—2016年叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态安全预警状态,并结合GM(1,1)模型预测2026—2032年区域生态安全态势。结果表明:1)1990—2016年叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态安全综合预警指数总体呈增长趋势,综合预警指数从0.255 8增加到0.551 6,生态预警状态由重警转为中警,预警指示灯由橙色变为黄色;2)GM(1,1)预测模型显示,2026—2032年研究区生态安全态势进一步好转,生态安全预警值从0.726 2上升到0.891 3,安全状态由较安全转向安全,安全等级从Ⅱ级上调为Ⅳ、Ⅴ级;3)空间上各县生态安全预警状态差异明显,研究初期西南部地区生态安全状态优于中东部地区,2016年呈现出中部高、东北-西南部低的态势。研究显示,近26年叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态环境得到了一定恢复,但绿洲内部各县生态预警状态差异明显,生态文明建设工作任重而道远。 |
关键词: 生态安全预警 PSR-EEES模型 灰色预测 叶尔羌河平原绿洲 |
DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2020.02.14 |
投稿时间:2019-04-22 |
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41661100);新疆师范大学研究生科技创新基金(XSY201902008) |
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Measure of ecological safety early warning in Yarkant river plain oasis based on PSR-EEES modelAMAT Malika, SHABIT Mansur *, ZHANG Xueqi, MA Guofei |
AMAT Malika,SHABIT Mansur ,ZHANG Xueqi,MA Guofei
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(College of Geography Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China) |
Abstract: |
In order to objectively evaluate the ecological safety warning situation of Yarkant river plain oasis, an index evaluation system based on the PSR-EEES model suitable for the study area was constructed. The comprehensive index method was used to evaluate the ecological safety warning state of the Yarkant river plain oasis from 1990 to 2016, and the GM(1, 1)model was combined to predict the regional ecological safety situation from 2026 to 2032. The results showed that: 1)The comprehensive index of ecological safety early warning in Yarkant river plain oasis from 1990 to 2016 showed an overall increasing trend. increasing from 0. 255 8 to 0. 551 6, and the ecological warning changed from heavy alarm to moderate alarm with the warning indicator light changed from orange to yellow; 2)The forecast model of GM(1, 1)showed that the ecological safety situation of the study area in 2026-2032 was further improved, ecological security warning value increased from 0. 726 2 to 0. 891 3. A more secure statu emerged, and the safety grade was upgrated from grade Ⅱ to grade Ⅳ and Ⅴ; 3)The status of ecological safety early warning in different counties was obviously different. In the early stage of the study, the ecological safety state in the southwest was better than those in the central and eastern regions. In 2016, it showed a trend of higher in the center area and lower in the northeast and southwest areas. In conclusion, the ecological environment of Yarkant river plain oasis was restored to some extent in the past 26 years. However, the state differences of ecological safety early warning in different counties were obviously indicating that the construction of ecological civilization has a long way to go. |
Key words: ecological safety early warning PSR-EEES model grey prediction YarKant river plain oasis |